Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect蝴蝶效应 祈使句 并列句

First listen and then answer the following question: Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?

Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.

世界上最好的两三天以上的天气预报具有很强的猜测性,如果超过六七天,天气预报就没有了任何价值。

The Butterfly Effect is the reason.

原因是蝴蝶效应。

For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly.

对于小片的恶劣天气 -- 对一个全球性的气象预报员来说,“小”可以意味着雷暴雨和暴风雪 -- 任何预测的质量会很快下降。

Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.

错误和不可靠性上升,接踵而来的是一系列湍流的徵状,从小尘暴和暴风发展到只有卫星上可以看到的席卷整块大陆的旋涡。

The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of 60 miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.

现代气象模型以一个坐标图来显示,图中每个点大约是间隔 60 英里。既使是这样,有些开始时的资料也不得不依靠推测,因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到地球上的每一个地方。

But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.

假设地球上可以布满传感器,每个相隔 1 英尺,并按1英尺的间隔从地面一直排列到大气层的顶端。

Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.

再假定每个传感器都极极端准确地读出了温度、气压、温度和气象学家需要的任何其他数据。

Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 12.02, then 12.03...

在正午时分,一个功能巨大的计算机搜集了所有的资料,并算出在每一个点上 12:01、12:02、12:03 时可能出现的情况。

The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.

计算机无法推断出 1 个月以后的某一天,新泽西州的普林斯顿究竟是晴天还是雨天。

At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average.

正午时分,传感器之间的距离会掩盖计算机无法知道的波动、任何偏平均值的变化。

By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.

到 12:01 时,那些波动就已经会在1英尺远的地方造成偏差。

Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.

很快这种偏差会增加到尺 10 英的范围,如此等等,一直到全球的范围。

JAMES GLEICK,Chaos

View of the 76 metre diameter Mark 1A radio telescope
View of the 76 metre diameter Mark 1A radio telescope at Jodrell Bank near Manchester, England
18个相关单词

与课文关联的单词

forecast

/ˈfɔːkɑːst/n. 预报

speculative

/ˈspekjələtɪv/adj. 推测的

blizzard

/ˈblɪzəd/n. 暴风雪

deteriorate

/dɪˈtɪəriəreɪt/v. 变坏,恶化

multiply *

/ˈmʌltɪplaɪ/v. 增加

cascade

/kæˈskeɪd/v. 瀑布似的落下

turbulent

/ˈtɜːbjələnt/adj. 狂暴的

dust devil

/ˈdʌst devl/n. 小尘暴,尘旋风

squall

/skwɔːl/n. 暴风

eddy

/ˈedi/n. 旋涡

grid

/ɡrɪd/n. 坐标方格

sensor

/ˈsensə(r)/n. 传感器

humidity

/hjuːˈmɪdəti/n. 湿度

meteorologist

/ˌmiːtiəˈrɒlədʒɪst/n. 气象学家

Princeton

/ˈprɪnstən/n. 普林斯顿(美国城市)

New Jersey

/njuː ˈdʒɜːzi/n. 新泽西(美国州名)

fluctuation

/ˌflʌktʃuˈeɪʃ(ə)n/n. 起伏,波动

deviation

/ˌdiːviˈeɪʃn/n. 偏差

提出观点 更新于:2025-11-11 12:00:25

The Butterfly Effect

butterfly 蝴蝶;蝶泳;举止轻浮的人;追求享乐的人

  • She is known as a social butterfly.社交蝴蝶(指举止轻浮或追求享乐的人)、交际花
  • The children chased a beautiful yellow butterfly in the garden.
  • He is an expert in the butterfly stroke.
have butterflies (in one’s stomach) 忐忑不安
  • It was the morning of the World Cup Final and most of the players had butterflies (in their stomach).
  • I always have butterflies before a major presentation.
  • She confessed to having butterflies in her stomach before her wedding.

chaos theory 混沌理论

Chaos theory suggests that small changes in initial conditions can lead to large-scale and unpredictable variation in the future state of the system.
  • The Butterfly Effect is a frequent metaphor for one aspect of chaos theory.
  • The principle illustrates how minor initial differences can be amplified, leading to widely diverging outcomes.

Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.

Beyond prep. after …; later than … 

  • Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative.
after... 在...之后After three days, the predictions become uncertain.
later than... 晚于...Any forecast later than two days is unreliable.
Exceeding v.超过(数量);超越,越出(权限)Exceeding two or three days, the accuracy drops significantly.

speculative 推测性的;投机的

  • If so, they would gain speculative profits. 这样的话,它们就有可能获得投机性收益。
  • Liquidity inflow fuelled speculative demand. 资金流入刺激投机性需求。
  • Venture capital transmogrified into speculative fever. 风险资本改头换面进入投机热。
be based on speculation / conjecture 基于推测The reports are based on speculation, not facts.
be based on guesswork / guess work 基于猜测Many long-range forecasts are simply based on guesswork.只是基于猜测

worthless 没有价值的(valueless、useless、...of no earthly use、totally useless)

valueless / useless 没有价值的/无用的The old currency is now valueless. / The advice proved to be useless.
of no earthly use 毫无用处(语气重)That broken machine is of no earthly use to anyone.
totally useless 完全无用的The new feature was totally useless for its intended purpose.

提出主题 更新于:2025-11-11 08:46:28

The Butterfly Effect is the reason.

The reason is because of the Butterfly Effect. X reason和because重复

reason for / behind 背后的原因

  • The Butterfly Effect is the reason for / behind it. 替换
  • What is the reason for his sudden departure?
  • She explained the reason behind her decision.
accounts for 是...的原因;解释The Butterfly Effect accounts for it.蝴蝶效应解释了它
underly 是...的基础/原因The Butterfly Effect underlies it.蝴蝶效应是其背后的原因
The reason is... 原因是...The reason is the Butterfly Effect.原因是蝴蝶效应
The reason lies in... 原因在于...The reason lies in the Butterfly Effect.原因在于蝴蝶效应

For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly.

mean v.be likely to result in … 导致、意味着…

  • The merger will mean the eventual closure of the company’s Shanghai Office.将意味着公司上海办事处的最终关闭
  • This delay will mean a lot of extra work for everyone. 将意味着大量的额外工作
  •  It would almost certainly mean the end of NATO.  这的确几乎导致北大西洋公约组织的终结。

deteriorate vi. 恶化,变坏 ; vt. 恶化

  • … any prediction gets worse / degenerates / becomes inaccurate rapidly. 
  • The situation is expected to deteriorate in the coming years. 预计这种局面在未来数年还会恶化。
  • Most importantly, buildings need love if they are not to deteriorate最重要的是,建筑需要爱护才不会老化。
gets worse / degenerates 恶化,变坏
  • His condition gets worse every day. 每况日下
  • The quality of the film degenerates in the second half.
becomes inaccurate 变得不准确Beyond this point, the data becomes inaccurate rapidly.迅速变得不准确

Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.

multiply v.to increase by a large amount or number, or to make sth. do this (使)大幅增加

  • Within the last 10 years, both sales and profits have multiplied.大幅增加
  • Smoking multiplies the risk of heart attacks.成倍增加了心脏病发作的风险
  • This will multiply our chances of success. 这将增加我们成功的机会。
snowball (像滚雪球般)迅速增加Unemployment snowballed at the beginning of 1980s.
proliferate 激增,扩散Small businesses have proliferated in the last ten years.
mushroom 迅速增长,如雨后春笋般涌现Trade between the two countries has mushroomed.
explode 爆炸式增长China’s population exploded after 1949.

a chain of... 一连串的 

  • Life is a chain of moments of enjoyment, not only about survival. 生活是一串串的快乐时光,我们不仅仅是为了生存而生存。
  • She had a train of thought.一连串的想法
  • He suffered a string of defeats.一连串的失败
  • We endured a succession of cold days.一连串的寒冷日子
a series of … 一连串的;一系列的The scientist conducted a series of experiments to test the hypothesis. 科学家进行了一系列的实验来检验这个假设。
a train of … 一连串的;一系列的 (尤指事件、想法)The news started a train of thoughts about her childhood. 这条新闻引发了一连串关于她童年的想法。
a string of … 一连串的;一系列的 (尤指相似或相关的事件)The store had a string of bad luck, including a fire and two robberies. 这家商店遭遇了一连串的厄运,包括一场火灾和两次抢劫。
a succession of … 连续的;接连不断的The team won the championship after a succession of victories. 在一连串的胜利之后,该团队赢得了冠军。
a progression of … 一系列的;进展过程中的The painting shows a progression of colors from light blue to dark violet. 这幅画展示了从浅蓝色到深紫色的一系列色彩变化。

feature n. characteristic 特征(指人为五官、指物为特点)

  • The house has many appealing features.吸引人的特征
  • The climate is a key feature of this region.

from A up to B 从A一直到B

  • The survey covers everyone from teenagers up to the elderly.从青少年一直到老年人
  • The prices range from $10 up to $100.从10美元一直到100美元
from A to B 从A到BHow to improve your travel from home to work? 如何改进你从家到办公地点的行程?

工作原理 更新于:2025-11-11 11:33:53

The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of 60 miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.

work v.(of a machine, device, etc) function; operate (指机器、设备等)运作,运转

  • This machine works by electricity.靠电力运作
  • The delete key doesn't work.不起作用

grid n.a pattern of straight lines that cross each other to form squares (地图上的)坐标方格

  • Streets laid out on a grid pattern.
  • The city has streets laid out on a grid pattern.街道按网格模式布置
  • We located the position on the grid.坐标方格

of / in / on the order of...  大约、大概(approximately)

  • a figure in the order of $7 million
  • Her salary is of the order of $150 a week.
  • And the available volume is on the order of meters cubed. 整个可用的空间体积有立方米的数量级。
  • They borrowed something in the order of $10 million. 他们大约借了一千万美元。
  • But is this simply part of the order of Nature? 但这是自然法则吗?
  • The house cost him something on the order of $200,000.
in the neighborhood / vicinity of... 大约、大概The house cost him something in the neighborhood / vicinity of $200,000.
approximately 大约、大概The house cost him approximately $200,000.大约20万美元

starting adj. beginning 最初的

  • ...some starting data一些初始数据 has to be guessed...
initial 最初的;字首的at the initial stage / phase.
incipient 初期的;初始的
  • an incipient tumor.
  • the incipient light of day
opening 开始的;开篇的
  • his opening remarks. 
  • the opening scene of the movie.电影的开篇场景
preliminary 预备性的;初步的a preliminary exam / contest.

But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.

space v.将...均匀隔开

  • Space your workouts two days apart to avoid sore muscles.
  • Bean plants should be spaced three inches apart.应该间隔三英寸
  • The columns are spaced evenly along the wall.
interval(两事件中的)间隔时间…, and by measuring the time interval between the taps and the receipt of the echoes the depth of the sea at that point can be calculated
(物体之间的)间隔空间They planted trees in the intervals between the houses.

all the way 一直...


Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.

reading 读数

  • read the meter 查表
  • The nurse took the patient's vital readings.生命体征读数
  • We need to take the meter reading before leaving.

(Suppose) Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 12.02, then 12.03...

Precisely at noon 正午时分(12点整)

  • Precisely at two-thirty someone knocked on the door. Lamar opened the door. 两点半的时候,有人敲门。拉马尔开了门。
  • It is precisely at this juncture that the boss finds himself in double jeopardy. 恰恰在这个关键时刻,上司发现自己处于进退两难的境地。
  • It is difficult to measure the density of rocks precisely at every part of the mountain region. 而要准确的测定各部分岩石密度又是十分困难的。
at high noon 正午时分The duel was set for at high noon.正午时分
at 12 o’clock sharp 12点整The meeting starts at 12 o’clock sharp.12点整
at punctually 12 o’clock 准时12点Please arrive at punctually 12 o’clock.准时12点

infinite 无限的,无穷的;无数的;极大的

  • The universe is infinite.无限的
  • The technology has been working well for me at the office, but there are infinite applications. 这项技术在我的办公室里运行得很好,但它有无限的应用。
  • Never lose your heart and continue to explore life since it is full of infinite possibilities. 永远不要灰心,要继续探索生活,因为它充满了无限的可能。
finite 有限的;限定的(反义词)Human knowledge is finite.有限的
infinitive adj. 原形的,不定式的It is wrong to ever split an infinitive将不定式分割永远是错误的。
definite adj. 一定的;确切的Our ideas began to crystallize into a definite plan. 我们的想法开始形成了一个明确的计划。
indefinite 不确定的;无限的;模糊的(形近词)
  • The project was postponed for an indefinite period.不确定的时期
  • an indefinite answer 
definitive 最终的;确定的(形近词)a definitive verdict.最终裁决

calculate 计算

  • Can you calculate the total cost of these items? 你能计算出这些物品的总成本吗? 
  • Can you work out the total cost? 
work out 计算出 (phr. v.)We need to work out the exact amount before we proceed. 在开始之前,我们需要计算出准确的金额。
figure out 计算出;想出 (phr. v.)I can't figure out how much we owe them. 我算不出来我们欠他们多少钱。
compute 计算 (v.)The system can compute complex equations in seconds. 该系统可以在几秒钟内计算出复杂的方程式。
reckon 计算;估计 (v.)The inflation is reckoned to be 10%. 通货膨胀被估算为10%。

现实情况 更新于:2025-11-11 11:53:48

The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.

unable to do sth. 不能做某事

  • The team was unable to score in the second half.
  • I was unable to attend the conference due to illness.

one month / week / year away 一个月以后

  • Ross and Emily set a wedding date just one month away罗斯和艾米丽计划下个月结婚。
  • The election is only one week away. There are rallies all over town tonight. 只剩一个星期就要选举了。今晚全城各地都有群众大会。
  • London's games are a mere two years away距伦敦奥运会开幕仅剩两年的时间。
  • Cant believe we are two days away from 2027. 不敢相信离2027还有两天了.

At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average.

fluctuations 波动,起伏

  • We observed constant fluctuations in the stock market.
  • Temperature fluctuations can affect the experiment's results.

deviations from the average 与平均值的偏差

  • Any deviation from the standard procedure must be reported.
  • The quality control checked for deviations from the norm.

By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.

already have created 已经造成了(将来完成时)

  • By next month, I will already have finished the entire project.
  • By the time he arrives, they will already have left.

Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.

multiplied 大幅增加

  • Our problems have multiplied since last year. 自去年以来,我们的问题成倍增加。
  • It's an administrative sham of the kind that has multiplied over the last 30 years. 这是一种行政骗局,在过去30年里该骗局不断激增。
snowballed to... (像滚雪球般)迅速增加到...The rumours will have snowballed to the ten-foot scale.谣言将迅速增加到十英尺的规模
proliferated to... 激增到...The problems will have proliferated to the ten-foot scale.问题将激增到十英尺的规模
rocketed to... 猛增到...The numbers will have rocketed to the ten-foot scale.数字将猛增到十英尺的规模
soared to... 飙升到...The costs will have soared to the ten-foot scale.成本将飙升到十英尺的规模

scale 程度、规模、范围

  • The scale of the fighting is almost unimaginable. 战斗的规模几乎难以想像。
  • There is no precedent for a disaster of this scale这种规模的灾难是空前的。
  • What began as a minor scuffle turned into a full-scale riot. 开始的小冲突演变成了大规模的暴乱。
on a small / limited scale 小规模/有限规模The experiment was conducted on a small scale.以小规模进行
on a large / grand scale 大规模The changes were implemented on a grand scale.以大规模实施
on a / an colossal / enormous / gigantic scale 特大规模They planned a building project on an enormous scale.以特大规模进行
on a national / nationwide scale 全国规模The campaign launched on a national scale.在全国规模启动
on a / an global / international / world / worldwide scale 全世界规模The crisis affected markets on a global scale.影响了全球规模的市场

and so on 等等

  • We discussed everything—when to go, what to see and so on我们什么都商量过了—什么时候走、看什么等等。
  • Don't forget about texts, emails, and so on不要忘记短信、邮件等等。
  • There is tutoring, sports clubs and so on有补习班、体育俱乐部等等。
and so forth 等等We discussed music, movies, and so forth.等等
etc. (et cetera) 等等The list includes apples, oranges, pears, etc.等等
and the like 以及类似事物He collects stamps, coins, and the like.以及类似事物
and what not 以及诸如此类的事物They sell crafts, jewelry, and what not.以及诸如此类的事物

global size 全世界规模

  • Global regions are weighted by the size of their GDP. 而衡量世界国家地区规模的标准是GDP。
  • That is the size of the global telecom market. 而这就是全球电信市场的规模。
  • Still, while the size and reach of global illicit industries can seem overwhelming, there are signs of hope. 尽管全球非法产业的规模越来越大,分布越来越广,我们依旧能够看到希望。
global scale 全世界规模This environmental problem requires action on a global scale. 这个环境问题需要全世界规模的行动。
international scale 国际规模The conference brought together experts working on an international scale. 这次会议汇集了在国际规模上工作的专家。
world scale 世界规模The company is now operating production facilities on a world scale. 该公司现在正在以世界规模运营生产设施。
worldwide scale 全球规模The new technology is expected to be adopted on a worldwide scale. 这项新技术预计将在全球规模上被采纳。